Posted by The Hidden Power of Party Loyalty in Voting
Imagine this: You’ve requested an absentee ballot, filled it out, and mailed it back—only to find out later that your ballot was incorrect. Due to an administrative error, tens of thousands of voters in Franklin County, Ohio, faced this exact scenario during the 2020 U.S. election. The county’s Board of Elections sent out 50,000 faulty ballots, forcing voters to either vote in person or return a corrected second ballot. For many, this unexpected hurdle could have meant disenfranchisement.
But here’s the surprising twist: Partisanship—simply identifying with a political party—made voters 40% less likely to have their vote thwarted by this obstacle. That’s the key finding from a groundbreaking study by political scientist David Niven at the University of Cincinnati. His research reveals that party loyalty doesn’t just influence who people vote for; it also determines whether they successfully cast their vote at all, especially when faced with unforeseen challenges.
The Experiment No One Planned
Niven’s study leveraged a quasi-experimental situation: the Franklin County Board of Elections’ error created a natural test of how voters respond to procedural hurdles when parties can’t mobilize them. Since the error wasn’t public until after ballots were mailed, parties had no time to intervene. This rare scenario allowed Niven to isolate the effect of party identity itself—not campaign outreach—on voters’ ability to overcome obstacles.
The results were striking:
- Partisans (Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians, and Greens) were 40% less likely to fail to cast a correct ballot compared to non-partisans.
- Even among “supervoters” who had participated in every recent election, party members were more resilient.
- Minor party members (Libertarians and Greens) benefited just as much as major party adherents.
This suggests that party loyalty acts as a kind of “political insurance”—helping voters navigate confusion, care more about the outcome, and take action when it matters most.
The Role of Data: How Namsor Enrichment Uncovered Hidden Patterns
One of the most innovative aspects of Niven’s research was his use of Namsor’s gender and race/ethnicity enrichment to analyze voter data. Since the voter file only included names, registration dates, and voting history, Niven turned to Namsor, an algorithmic tool that predicts race and gender based on names and U.S. Census data. This step was crucial for two reasons:
- Filling Data Gaps Ohio’s voter files didn’t include explicit demographic data. By enriching the dataset with predicted race and ethnicity, Niven could control for factors like systemic disparities in voting access. The analysis revealed that Latino/a, Black, and Asian voters were significantly more vulnerable to the ballot error—highlighting how procedural hurdles disproportionately affect marginalized groups.
- Uncovering Statistically Significant Insights The enriched data showed that:
- Latino/a voters were 59% more likely to fail to cast a correct ballot than white voters.
- Black voters faced a 29% higher risk, and Asian voters a 15% higher risk.
- Socioeconomic status (proxied by home value) also played a role, with wealthier voters less likely to be tripped up by the error.
Without Namsor’s enrichment, these disparities might have gone unnoticed, obscuring the full picture of how electoral hurdles impact different communities.
Why This Matters for Democracy
Niven’s findings carry urgent implications for U.S. elections:
- Independent voters are the most vulnerable to procedural barriers. While partisan voters are “inoculated” by their loyalty, independents—who already turn out at lower rates—face a “triple threat”: less mobilization, lower baseline turnout, and greater susceptibility to obstacles.
- Minor parties matter too. Even Libertarian and Green Party members showed resilience, debunking the myth that only major parties provide protective benefits.
- Data enrichment can expose inequities. Tools like Namsor help researchers (and policymakers) identify who is most at risk when voting becomes harder—whether due to error or design.
As states continue to debate voting laws—from stricter ID requirements to limits on mail-in ballots—this research sounds a warning: Election rules aren’t neutral. They create winners and losers, and the losers are often those without the “buffer” of party ties.
The Bigger Picture: Partisanship as a Double-Edged Sword
While party loyalty clearly helps voters overcome obstacles, it also raises questions:
- Should democracy depend on partisan identity for equal access?
- How can election systems be designed to protect all voters, not just those affiliated with a party?
- Could better data tools help election officials proactively identify and assist voters most likely to struggle with new rules?
Niven’s work doesn’t just explain the past—it challenges us to rethink the future. If party loyalty is a shield against disenfranchisement, what does that mean for the millions of Americans who reject partisan labels?
Key Takeaways
✅ Party loyalty is a powerful tool for navigating electoral challenges, independent of mobilization efforts. ✅ Data enrichment (like Namsor’s) can reveal hidden biases in who succeeds—or fails—in the voting process. ✅ Electoral hurdles hit marginalized groups hardest, but better data can help target solutions.
As the 2024 election cycle heats up, Niven’s research is a reminder: The health of democracy depends on more than just who shows up to vote—it’s about who gets to vote at all.
What do you think? Should parties do more to protect independent voters? Or is the solution to remove the hurdles altogether? Share your thoughts in the comments!
For more details, check out the full study: “The power of party to help voters overcome a participation obstacle in the United States” by David Niven (2025).
Credits : summarization and illustration by LeChat MistralAI (Pro Version)
About NamSor
NamSor™ Applied Onomastics is a European vendor of sociolinguistics software (NamSor sorts names). NamSor mission is to help understand international flows of money, ideas and people. We proudly support Gender Gap Grader.